Fresno, California

At 3:30, two Mountain West heavyweights will square off in Las Vegas on FS1. The Fresno State Bulldogs are coming off a dominating 38-21 win over New Mexico, improving them to 3-1 on the season. Last week, the Bulldogs were able to turn the New Mexico offense over three times, leading to 14 points after the turnovers. In addition, the offense looked sharp as Mikey Keene threw for 226 yards and a score. As the Bulldogs continue to shine, their toughest test of the year is upon them as they travel Las Vegas to take on the UNLV Rebels (3-0).

With two Power 4 wins over Houston (27-7) and Kansas (23-20) and 53 votes received in this week’s AP poll, the Rebels are vying for the coveted Group of 5 playoff spot. The offense is led by Sacred Heart transfer quarterback Matthew Sluka, who can beat you in the air as well as on the ground, and star receiver Ricky White III, who had 1,500 receiving yards just a season ago. The defense is anchored by fifth-year senior Jackson Woodard and NFL-ready corner Tony Grimes. If Fresno State wants to secure a victory, a lot has to go right for the Bulldogs. Check out our keys to victory:

Keys to Victory

Third Down Success

This season, Fresno State has faced significant challenges on third down, converting only 28% of the time, which ranks them 115th nationally. Last year, they fared much better, converting 50% of third downs and ranking 4th in the country. To improve their chances in this game, the Bulldogs need to keep drives alive and aim for last season’s conversion rate. In tight games like this, each drive is crucial. The more Fresno State can sustain possession and keep the offense on the field, the better their defense will perform in critical moments.

Load The Box

For Fresno State to win this game, stopping the run will be essential. UNLV has been running the ball 73% of the time, ranking 4th nationally behind only the military academies. This shows their confidence in controlling the ground game and playing for field position. While the Rebels haven’t relied on a single feature back, they spread the workload across multiple players. With eight different players recording at least nine carries, the defense can never be sure who will get the ball next. Fresno State has been average at stopping the run, but they’ll need to step up significantly to contain this physical UNLV offense.

Start Strong

Setting the tone early will be key for Fresno State. By coming out strong, they can take the crowd out of the game and limit its influence. UNLV’s run-heavy approach makes it difficult for them to recover from large deficits. In their first three games, they’ve only faced a comeback situation once, managing an 18-play, nine-and-a-half-minute drive to secure a win over Kansas. If Fresno State can build an early lead, they’ll force UNLV to adjust, likely pushing them into more passing situations—a scenario that could be difficult for the Rebels to navigate.

Conclusion

This game has major implications for the Mountain West race, with the winner also strengthening their College Football Playoff résumé. Fresno State’s success on third downs will be crucial to keeping them in the game. Loading the box defensively will give them a chance to counter UNLV’s physical ground game. Lastly, starting strong could put UNLV in an uncomfortable position, forcing them to stray from their preferred game plan. All signs point to an exciting and high-stakes matchup.